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And in addition you can apply this powerful methodology directly to your trading, or it can be integrated and blended into existing trading tactics and strategies. All that is required is a chart with volume and price.
Volume price analysis answers the one question all traders want an answer to: Where is the market heading next? About the Author: Anna Coulling is a full time trader, best selling author and market analyst. Her trading career began in futures almost twenty years ago, since when she has traded virtually every market, and every instrument. Volume price analysis has been the foundation of her trading and investing success, and is the technical element of her unique three dimensional approach to trading.
Fundamental and related market analysis then complete the method. This powerful approach has given her a deep and detailed knowledge of the forces that drive the financial markets, which is then reflected in the underlying market sentiment. She now has the luxury of being able to educate the next generation of traders in this powerful methodology. Frankly, I could trade with no money at stake, and still get pleasure from providing my readers with an analysis that is right - so forget the money, it will come in due course.
Put simply, it is your intuition that will tell you whether a particular market move will develop and gather momentum. You will come to recognize whether the market is likely to move higher or lower. It is hard to describe this feeling, but feel it you will, once you begin to study charts on a daily basis and watch how market moves develop and evolve. The problem, of course, is that you can never be sure, as sometimes the moves are simply the large institutions moving the market for their own ends.
However, combine a strong, reliable trading signal with your instinct and overall analysis and you will have a powerful weapon. However, what I can do, hopefully, is to guide you through the subject and to provide some pointers as to what I believe are the most important aspects of this key area, which I hope will help you in getting started a little quicker.
Put simply, technical analysis is based on the principle that in looking at a chart of price and time, then the chart contains all the views of all the market players condensed in one place, in the form of a chart. It is, if you like, much like a cake, where all the ingredients are mixed together to produce a cake where the sweet and sour blend together in the finished product.
On a chart, all the views of the bulls and bears are clearly visible and consolidated into a single price, which also includes all the fundamental and economic data within the price action. Now the corollary to this is, that if all market participants are looking at the same chart and the market makes a sudden move, is this the market or the fact that all the players have seen the same signal?
These provide meaningful and instant signals and once you begin to recognise various patterns they will give you clues as to the likely future direction for the market. I have been studying and using candle charts for over fifteen years, and if you follow me in my trading webinars I always conduct some live chart reading as the signals appear in real time.
As you will see once you start to study this aspect of technical analysis, there are a myriad of patterns and signals to be learnt which can be overwhelming, so where do I suggest you start? Identify the candle within the market move and then watch the market to see how it reacts to the signal. Remember, markets do not always react immediately and you may have to wait a short time for the expected move to develop.
When I first started I spent the first 6 months of my trading career just studying candle charts - nothing else - until I could read a chart with confidence. The next stage is to consider all the various Western or mathematical technical indicators, of which there are many, and whilst I am sure they all have their various advocates, I use very few of these, preferring to stick to simple candle pattern analysis, coupled with two or three of the most basic.
This is not to say that these indicators have no place in your analysis, it is simply that you will need to test and study each one and make your own decision. You may find that one in particular resonates with you and you then begin to learn how to use the indicator as part of your decision making process.
Some of the most common in the forex markets which have a strong following are those based on Fibonnaci and Gann, and I use some elements of these to arrive at longer term forecasts and market predictions of where I believe a price may turn based on the underlying mathematical concepts. However, just like every other technical indicator this is only a guide, and in addition is never used in isolation, an important point, since one indicator alone will ever give you a true signal.
It is the combination of indicators coupled with your chart reading skills and knowledge of the fundamental news that will ultimately dictate whether you open a new trade or close an existing position. The beauty of the simple moving average is that is provides a simple signal as to the bullish or bearish strength of the market, and as such I tend to use four in my own charting, namely the 9, 14, 40 and period moving averages!
The general rule in using this family of indicators is that when the market crosses above or below, or when the indicators themselves cross one another, then these are giving a signal and therefore potential trading opportunities, as market sentiment may be changing from bearish to bullish or from bullish to bearish. The longer term period as you would expect provides a clue to the longer term for the market.
Now detractors often argue that the market will have already moved on following periods, and this information is therefore out of date. However, it is also important to realize that the markets themselves are aware of these levels, along with the market players, and therefore they become key points on the chart, where markets often pause or reverse as a result. The numbers that I use above are my own, and many other analysts and market commentators may use fewer or with different time periods - 20 and 50 are quite popular for example.
The key point is to find those that work for you and stick with them - this is part of trading, as you must build your trading system to suit you. The reason I use this concept so much in my own trading is that I have found it works well, and in addition, most other market players also trade using this concept, and as such has an element of the self fulfilling prophecy where we are all looking at the same chart. So let me explain this briefly for you.
From time to time markets move sideways, and as a result create areas of price congestion where the price simply moves up and down in a relatively narrow range. This is often referred to as price consolidation, and leaves the chart with a dense area of candles tightly packed in a narrow channel. At some point in the future, the price action returns to this price level, either from above or below, and this area of congestion then can act either as a platform of support if the price move is from above, with a consequent bounce and reversal back higher, or if the price action is from below, then as a possible barrier to any further progress and consequent reversal lower.
At times, of course, the congestion area is breached, and this is when it becomes most interesting for two reasons. First, the market clearly has some momentum as it has breached this area of price congestion, and secondly, this price area now gives us some protection to any short term reversal, allowing us to place a trade with a degree of confidence and upside or downside protection.
In effect, the ceiling has now become the floor! This price area also provides us with some protection in case the market should reverse suddenly, having breached the area, as we know that any move back lower will take some effort, and therefore we can use this region as a natural protection for our trade, should we decide to enter the market with a buy order at this level. This is a powerful technical technique and one that I use constantly in all my analysis of the markets.
It is both simple to understand and easy to interpret and applies to all markets, timescales and instruments, and you will be surprised at how often markets pause as they approach these areas, particularly if the price congestion is both deep and wide. Should the price action breach such an area, then you can be relatively confident that the market will continue in its direction once clear.
Whilst this is often self evident, a trend line can also help to identify points where the market may struggle, assuming the current trend continues. The key point to note with all trend lines, is that in order to construct them correctly it is imperative that you always use three points to connect a line, never two, as this can be misleading in drawing any relevant conclusions.
Here again, this is useful in providing clues as to likely price points where we could see a reversal, or high points in a downwards trend which could signal potential entry points for a further move lower, or equally in an upwards trend, an entry point on the lower trend line for a continuation higher. There is, of course, a great deal more than this to the art of technical analysis, but I hope the above will help to get you started and to focus your attention on some of the simple indicators and candle patterns that I use myself every day in my own trading.
Currency rates do not move in isolation in some sort of vacuum, and as I tried to explain at the start, the market was originally created in order to allow major companies to buy and sell products and commodities, along with hedging future prices. In other words real money for real goods. It is these inter market correlations, and underlying relationships between currencies, country economics and how a country generates its wealth, that will help you begin to understand how and why currencies move when fundamental data is released to the markets.
Indeed, when I am writing or discussing the markets, it is impossible not to consider the broader economics, and at the time of writing we have the world recession to consider, the slowdown in China, the European sovereign debt problems, and the longer term recovery in the US, to name just a few! In the last 12 months we have seen strong gains in equities, commodities breaking out into new highs led by gold and silver, and once traditional correlations between markets breaking down.
Given that this is such a big subject where should you start? In my opinion I would suggest that you read a quality daily publication such as the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal - but a word of caution - in reading these publications you are ONLY looking for analysis to help you understand what GDP means, or why interest rates are so important, an explanation of Non Farm Payroll, why treasury yields are important, and the correlations between the various markets.
So my first suggestion is to sign up for a trial of one of these and start the education process as soon as possible. However, try to stick to one source of news as it is very easy to become overwhelmed by market noise and conflicting opinions. Next, you need to find a good economic calendar, either on the internet or use the one provided by your broker.
Try to find a calendar which also displays the trend for the news release in question and whether recent releases have been above or below market forecast. This is important as often data may have already been priced into the market resulting in only a minor change in the existing trend or sentiment.
Whilst there are a huge number of releases each month, some of which are weekly or monthly, I would suggest that you start with the following broad groups and specific releases. Understand what they are, what the numbers mean, and how they relate to the economy for the country, and in turn the likely impact for the currency. It is also important to understand that these broad groups fall in and out of favour with the markets in terms of importance.
In the last 2 years, interest rate decisions from the US, UK or Europe no longer move the markets to any great extent. The reason? With interest rates at record lows and with little chance of any immediate change, these releases are largely ignored. Meanwhile, interest rate decisions from healthy economies such as China, Australia, Canada or Brazil can and do have an effect.
Instead, news items which can and do move rates are those around unemployment as these provide a direct and relatively immediate view of the underlying health of an economy, with the monthly Non Farm Payroll figures for the US, generally taking centre stage.
These are released on the first Friday of each new month at 8. Housing data! The indicator provides a view from the survey sample of whether they are bullish or bearish. This will take time, and you cannot hope to understand all you read when you start, but gradually as you develop an interest in the subject it will make more sense, but be warned, the markets do not necessarily react in the way you might think when a new piece of news hits the wires.
After all, if it were that easy, all we would need to do would be to read the fundamental news and trade accordingly. Markets can and do have phases of pessimism and optimism where bad news is discounted and good news ignored! It is all part and parcel of trading, which makes this such a fascinating subject to study. The best way that I have found to explain it, is to watch a very short term chart, such as the 1 minute or 5 minute, and to try to feel the mood of the market.
Now in this case, moves may only last for a few minutes or a few hours, but they are certainly there, and for scalpers who like to trade many times a day this is a crucial skill to master as you will often be trading against the longer term trend, but in the short term there is a clearly defined and positive move that has some momentum behind it, which is sufficient for you as an intraday trader to take a few pips on each move.
It is a skill that is worth developing, and even though you may never decide to trade on these short term moves, it will help you develop a better feel for the longer term markets, where this market momentum is less pronounced and less evident. In the end, no one can ever hope to master the forex markets completely, but to be successful you need to set the dollar signs apart and begin to focus on the intellectual enjoyment of trading, a game rather like chess or backgammon, and if you can achieve this and forget about the money, then your chances of success are magnified exponentially.
Sadly few can, which is why I advocate you approach forex trading as an intellectual exercise as you apply yourself to the learning process. In order to become a successful trader you do need to immerse yourself in the subject in order to find your edge in the market. If you are already a successful forex trader and winning consistently, then make sure you know why, and what your edge is, as this is what will keep you going during the tough times, as winning streaks can and do turn into losing ones as trade after trade goes against you.
Finally I have deliberately excluded money and risk management from this guide as these topics require dedicated reports in their own right as this guide is only meant as an introduction to the world of forex trading.
As always, good luck and good trading - Anna! Describes a currency strengthening in! Ask Price:! Lowest price acceptable to the buyer. Back Office:! Bank Rate:! The rate at which a central bank lends money! Base Currency:! Currency in which bank operates. Base Rate:! Term used in UK to calculate retail interest! Basis Point:!! Person who believes prices will fall. Bear Market:! One characterized by falling prices. Bid Price:! Highest price the seller is offering. Bid Figure:!! Refers to first 3 digits of an exchange rate.
Bank of International Settlement. Bretton Woods:! A system of fixed currency exchange rate. Person who believes prices will rise. Bull Market:! One characterised by rising prices. Dollar rate. Central Bank:!
Customer or bank which an fx deal is! Cross Rate:!! A pair which does not include the US dollar. A type of money a country uses. Various weightings of other currencies! Deal Date:! Date of which a transaction is agreed upon. Deal Ticket:! Primary method of recording a transaction.
Individual or firm acting as a principal. Shortfall in balance of trade, balance of! Settlement of contract by delivery of! Delivery Date:! Date of maturity of a contract. Electronic fund transfer. European Monetary System. European Union:!! Formerly known as European Community. Exchange Risk:! Potential loss incurred from adverse rate! A less broadly traded currency.
Expiry Date:! Date of expiry of option or futures contract. US Federal Reserve. Fixed Xchge Rate:! Official rate set by monetary authorities. A neutral position in the market. Federal Open Market Committee. Foreigh Exchange:! Purchase or sale of currency. An abbreviation of the above term. Forward Contract:! Buying currency at an agreed price in the!
Forward Points:! Interest rate differential between two! Forward Rate:! The exchange rate agreed for a future! Activities carried out by the dealer. Fundamental Analysis: Analysis based on economic and political! Foreign exchange. Good til cancelled-an order left to buy or sell! Indicative Quote:!! Market makers price that is not firm. Interbank Rates:!
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