Ante post betting for the derby
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At the same time, losses can accumulate quickly when betting large amounts, so play in your comfort zone and save bigger bets for races where you have strong opinions. A horse field, combined with horses traveling from across the country and abroad alike, makes the task especially difficult.
I have pegged a handful of tips that history suggests will aid in the process of finding the correct Derby horse. Post Position Drawing close or along to the rail would seem like a logical advantage for any horse in a particular race.
But, in the Kentucky Derby, being drawn inside has been the opposite. Since , just three horses breaking from the three innermost positions have captured the Run for the Roses. With field sizes that have approached or reached 20 in recent years, any mistake from the inside could crush the chances of a contender in a flash. Dating back to , six winners broke from starting slot 13 and wider, and much of that can be attributed to receiving a clean voyage.
Verdict: The trip is essential. Running Style Horses that are forwardly placed have been especially successful in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby. The last time a Derby hero rallied from farther back was Orb in who was 5th at the second call. Verdict: Tactical speed is almost a necessity.
Odds There was a long stretch where favored horses in the Derby failed to run to their odds, but that has all changed in recent seasons.
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He ran only once as a two-year-old, winning a maiden at Nottingham — a race that has also been won in the past by Mishriff and Space Blues. And that Nottingham run saw him win in pleasing style, travelling well throughout and seeing off the field to take the win. And he showed that success was no fluke with an impressive victory at York — taking the lead a quarter of a mile from home and landing the richest Derby trial of all by three and a quarter lengths, despite drifting to his right.
And Stoute knows what it takes to train a Derby winner, having won the race five times in a distinguished career — Desert Crown could well make that a sixth come Derby day. Running over 1m 2f that day, Stone Age stayed on impressively, indicating that the Derby distance would be of no concern. He was clearly green and he took his time to get there but once he did, he kept on well and he was pulling clear close to the line.
He returned in a Novice at Nottingham 10f gd earlier this month and this time, he knew a bit more but he still looked green early on. Substance He went off quick from the front and 4f out as his rivals closed, he looked like a sitting duck. Jack Mitchell had evidently been giving him a breather though because once he pushed the button 2f out, West Wind Blows surged clear and won by over 5L.
Unlike his Newcastle win, there was substance to that form. Yes, it was only a novice but some big owners and trainers were represented in it and he was giving at least 7lbs to them all. He also wears a hood so the key could be getting him through the preliminaries at Epsom without boiling over.
If they can keep him calm, this horse has no shortage of ability. Unlike the Derby, we have a red hot fav in Emily Upjohn. She absolutely hacked up in that My only concern is the trip. Her dam was a non-stayer at 12f and connections will be hoping that Sea The Stars has injected plenty of stamina. She took three goes before she got off the mark last season at Doncaster 8f sft. Connections resisted the temptation to go for a handicap on her comeback as they went in search of black type in the Cheshire Oaks She just missed out in 4th but they at least learned that they have a classy filly on their hands.
Moon De Vega was interfered with soon after the start and Rob Hornby had to sit an suffer on the inside behind the leaders. Just as he went to angle her out, he got stuck in behind the rapidly retreating Morning Poem and Night Battle. Above The Curve and Typewriter swept past as Hornby had nowhere to go and once the gap came, they had nicked at least lengths on her.
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